Why India’s Second Covid-19 Surge Is Much Worse Than Its First

False Sense of Security

India’s first surge peaked in September, when newly reported cases were approaching 100,000 a day. By the start of this year, that number had dropped by 80%. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Brazil, the two other countries hardest hit by Covid-19, were facing rapidly rising caseloads.

With the outbreak ebbing this winter, Indians eased up on mask-wearing and social distancing. Life was returning to normal, with visits to malls, movies and restaurants approaching pre-pandemic levels. Political rallies and religious festivals, where masses of people crowded together, potentially served as “super-spreader” events.

Rise of the Variants

Just as India was opening up, new coronavirus variants were gaining hold in the population. These include the one first detected in the U.K., as well as B.1.617, which was first identified in the state of Maharashtra and has since gone on to become the dominant variant on the subcontinent.

On Monday, the World Health Organization said B.1.617 may spread more easily than earlier versions of the virus and classified it as a global “variant of concern,” along with the ones first detected in the U.K., Brazil and South Africa.

Despite occupying a different branch of the coronavirus family tree, B.1.617 has developed several of the mutations found in these other variants, as well as related mutations affecting the same stretches of genetic code.

Coronavirus Family Tree

Evolutionary changes progress from left to right. Circles represent genetically similar groupings.

Variant from Brazil

Nov. 2020

Ancestral

virus

Detected

Dec. 2019

Variant from Brazil

Nov. 2020

Ancestral

virus

Detected

Dec. 2019

Variant from Brazil

Nov. 2020

Ancestral

virus

Detected

Dec. 2019

Ancestral

virus

Detected

Dec. 2019

These mutations may help make the virus better at infecting cells or evading the body’s immune defenses.

Shared and Related Mutations

A look at mutations found in the Indian variant (B.1.617) that are the same as or related to those found in other variants, plus the possible effects of those mutations

Variants that have the same or related mutations

Helps virus infect

human cells

Variants that have the same or related mutations

Helps virus infect

human cells

Variants that have the same or related mutations

Helps virus infect

human cells

Mutation/

possible

effect

Variants that have the same

or related mutations

Slow Pace of Vaccinations

Swelling infections have given new urgency to India’s efforts to vaccinate its massive population. The country has grappled with logistics challenges and raw-material shortages that have hampered its inoculation campaign. Last month, it suspended vaccine exports to give priority to domestic needs. The country has fully inoculated less than 3% of its 1.4 billion people. This is the lowest rate among the 10 countries with the most Covid-19 cases.