Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has upended assumptions about the long-term security of Europe, puncturing hopes of living peacefully alongside Russia and sending millions of people fleeing from the advance. These graphics and charts provide a way of coming to terms with the enormity of what is happening.
What’s the situation on the ground?
Since invading Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russian forces have encountered fierce resistance from Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers, thwarting Russian President
goal of quickly decapitating the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Russian forces have surrounded Mariupol, a port on the Sea of Azov and are close to cutting off Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Both have been heavily bombarded. Concern is growing that with their advance to Kyiv stalling, Russian forces will expand their bombing and shelling of civilian targets to cow Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky
into submission.
Areas no longer controlled by Ukraine as of Friday
Direction of invasion forces
Controlled by or allied to Russia
Primary refugee crossing locations
Chernobyl
Not in operation
Ukraine territory, recognized by Putin as independent
Controlled by
separatists
Areas no longer controlled by Ukraine as of Friday
Direction of invasion forces
Controlled by or allied to Russia
Ukraine territory, recognized by Putin as independent
Primary refugee crossing locations
Chernobyl
Not in operation
Controlled by
separatists
Areas no longer controlled by Ukraine as of Friday
Direction of invasion forces
Controlled by or allied to Russia
Primary refugee crossing locations
Ukraine territory, recognized by Putin as independent
Chernobyl
Not in operation
Controlled by
separatists
Areas no longer controlled by Ukraine as of Friday
Direction of invasion forces
Controlled by or allied to Russia
Primary refugee crossing locations
Ukraine territory, recognized by Putin as independent
Areas no longer controlled by Ukraine as of Friday
Direction of invasion forces
Controlled by or allied to Russia
Primary refugee crossing locations
Ukraine territory, recognized by Putin as independent
The biggest movement of people in Europe since World War II
More than 2.5 million people have now left Ukraine since the invasion began, over half to Poland. Another two million people have fled to other parts of Ukraine. A humanitarian crisis is quickly building. By March 10, two refugees were entering Poland every three seconds. Cities can’t find beds fast enough to meet demand. The influx would already constitute Poland’s second-largest city and will likely soon surpass the population of the capital, Warsaw, Polish officials have predicted. Poland’s total population has grown for the first time since 1987, and the government is pushing the U.S. and other countries to expedite visas for Ukrainians and shoulder a larger share of the burden. The European Union is giving Ukrainians the right to stay in the bloc for three years.
How we got here
In the space of weeks, Russia has gone from holding military exercises near Ukraine’s borders to allegedly dropping thermobaric weapons on the country and placing its nuclear deterrent on alert. The dramatic escalation stems from Mr. Putin’s view that Russia and Ukraine are an indivisible whole, bound by ancient ties of culture and language to create a greater “Russky Mir,” or Russian world, which had been dismembered by the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The idea that Ukraine, under its West-leaning leader, would one day attempt to join the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was unacceptable, even if NATO said it didn’t have any designs on allowing Ukraine to join. In April last year, Mr. Putin began deploying tens of thousands of troops along Ukraine’s borders in a show of force, rotating in more troops over the winter.
Brigades and Regiments: With about 3,000 troops each and tanks, these are the basic land forces of the Russian military.
Belarus Forces: Belarusian military units who perform exercises with Russian ground forces.
Battalion Tactical Groups:
These highly trained groups can lead forces in an invasion.
Donbas Forces: Up to 40,000 troops, these forces are a combination of local separatists and mercenaries.
Controlled by
separatists
Brigades and Regiments: With about 3,000 troops each and tanks, these are the basic land forces of the Russian military.
Belarus Forces: Belarusian military units who perform exercises with Russian ground forces.
Battalion Tactical Groups:
These highly trained groups can lead forces in an invasion.
Controlled by
separatists
Donbas Forces: Up to 40,000 troops, these forces are a combination of local separatists and mercenaries.
Brigades and Regiments: With about 3,000 troops each and tanks, these are the basic land forces of the Russian military.
Belarus Forces: Belarusian military units who perform exercises with Russian ground forces.
Battalion Tactical Groups:
These highly trained groups can lead forces in an invasion.
Controlled by
separatists
Donbas Forces: Up to 40,000 troops, these forces are a combination of local separatists and mercenaries.
Controlled by
separatists
Brigades and Regiments: With about 3,000 troops each and tanks, these are the basic land forces of the Russian military.
Battalion Tactical Groups: These highly trained groups can lead forces in an invasion.
Controlled by
separatists
Brigades and Regiments: With about 3,000 troops each and tanks, these are the basic land forces of the Russian military.
Battalion Tactical Groups: These highly trained groups can lead forces in an invasion.
Russia invades
The first missiles began striking Kyiv on Feb. 24, three days after Mr. Putin announced that Russia was recognizing the independence of two pro-Russian regions that broke away from Ukrainian control in 2014, the same year Russia annexed Crimea. On Feb. 28, Russia allegedly dropped its first thermobaric device on Ukraine, according to Ukrainian and Western officials, demonstrating that Moscow was ready to unleash some of its most powerful weaponry. Also known as vacuum weapons, they carry an explosive mixture that can contain powdered metals that scatter and ignite, creating a devastating explosion that can pass around physical barriers and flow inside structures.
How a thermobaric weapon works
When the weapon reaches its target, the fuse triggers a charge that scatters the thermobaric mixture.
Milliseconds after, the mixture of fuel-oxidant explodes, creating a massive fireball.
The explosion can spread over a wide area and go around structures and into buildings.
The fireball consumes surrounding oxygen, creating a vacuum effect that sucks in air.
This combination creates a devastating effect on the surrounding area.
When the weapon reaches its target, the fuse triggers a charge that scatters the thermobaric mixture.
Milliseconds after, the mixture of fuel-oxidant explodes, creating a massive fireball.
The explosion can spread over a wide area and go around structures and into buildings.
The fireball consumes surrounding oxygen, creating a vacuum effect that sucks in air.
This combination creates a devastating effect on the surrounding area.
When the weapon reaches its target, the fuse triggers a charge that scatters the thermobaric mixture.
Milliseconds after, the mixture of fuel-oxidant explodes, creating a massive fireball.
The explosion can spread over a wide area and go around structures and into buildings.
The fireball consumes surrounding oxygen, creating a vacuum effect that sucks in air.
This combination creates a devastating effect on the surrounding area.
When the weapon reaches its target, the fuse triggers a charge that scatters the thermobaric mixture.
Milliseconds after, the mixture of fuel-oxidant exaplodes, creating a massive fireball.
The explosion can spread over a wide area and go around structures and into buildings.
The fireball consumes surrounding oxygen, creating a vacuum effect that sucks in air.
This combination creates a devastating effect on the surrounding area.
When the weapon reaches its target, the fuse triggers a charge that scatters the thermobaric mixture.
Milliseconds after, the mixture of fuel-oxidant explodes, creating a massive fireball.
The explosion can spread over a wide area and go around structures and into buildings.
The fireball consumes surrounding oxygen, creating a vacuum effect that sucks in air.
This combination creates a devastating effect on the surrounding area.
Was Russia overconfident?
Moscow appeared to have a significant military advantage over Ukraine before the war began. Its forces dwarf those of its smaller neighbor and appear to have given Mr. Putin and his defense chief, Sergei Shoigu, a false sense of confidence over speed with which victory could be secured.
Russia’s failure to take the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, swiftly suggests that its effort to create a modern, professional military machine has been flawed. Instead, poor logistics preparation and ill-prepared forces have combined with Ukrainian resolve and battle experience to slow the Russian advance. Ukrainian access to sophisticated Western antitank weapons has played a pivotal role.
Ukraine won’t be receiving Soviet-era jet fighters from Poland after the U.S. blocked the plan, saying it could escalate and potentially widen the conflict. NATO has rejected Ukraine’s request to implement a no-fly zone over the country for the same reason.
Military comparison
Defense budget in 2021
(current U.S. dollars)
Since the invasion, Ukraine has received military aid from many countries including the vast majority of NATO member states.
Armored and tracked vehicles, armed with a turret-mounted gun of
at least 100mm caliber and with a combat weight of between 35 and 75 metric tons.
Ukraine has received anti-tank weaponry from various countries since the invasion, including Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and the United States.
Helicopters designed with air-to-surface weapons
Anti-aircraft weapons have been sent to Ukraine from various countries including Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, Netherlands and the United States.
Various aircraft including fighters, bombers and transport planes
Defense budget in 2021
(current U.S. dollars)
Since the invasion, Ukraine has received military aid from many countries including the vast majority of NATO member states.
Armored and tracked vehicles, armed with a turret-mounted gun of
at least 100mm caliber and with a combat weight of between 35 and 75 metric tons.
Ukraine has received anti-tank weaponry from various countries since the invasion, including Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and the United States.
Helicopters designed with air-to-surface weapons
Anti-aircraft weapons have been sent to Ukraine from various countries including Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, Netherlands and the United States.
Various aircraft including fighters, bombers and transport planes
Defense budget in 2021
(current U.S. dollars)
Since the invasion, Ukraine has received military aid from many countries including the vast majority of NATO member states.
Armored and tracked vehicles, armed with a turret-mounted gun of
at least 100mm caliber and with a combat weight of between 35 and 75 metric tons.
Ukraine has received anti-tank weaponry from various countries since the invasion, including Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and the United States.
Helicopters designed with air-to-surface weapons
Anti-aircraft weapons have been sent to Ukraine from various countries including Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, Netherlands and the United States.
Various aircraft including fighters, bombers and transport planes
Defense budget in 2021
(current U.S. dollars)
Since the invasion, Ukraine has received military aid from many countries including the vast majority of NATO member states.
Armored and tracked vehicles, armed with a turret-mounted
gun of at least 100mm caliber and with a combat weight of
between 35 and 75 metric tons.
Ukraine has received anti-tank weaponry from various countries since the invasion, including Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and the United States.
Helicopters designed with air-to-surface weapons
Anti-aircraft weapons have been sent to Ukraine from various countries including Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, Netherlands and the United States.
Various aircraft including fighters, bombers
and transport planes
Defense budget in 2021
(current U.S. dollars)
Since the invasion, Ukraine has received military aid from many countries including the vast majority of NATO member states.
Armored and tracked vehicles, armed with a turret-
mounted gun of at least 100mm caliber and with a
combat weight of between 35 and 75 metric tons.
Ukraine has received anti-tank weaponry from various countries since the invasion, including Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and the United States.
Helicopters designed with air-to-surface weapons
Anti-aircraft weapons have been sent to Ukraine from various countries including Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, Netherlands and the United States.
Various aircraft including fighters, bombers
and transport planes
Inflation shock
The Russian invasion triggered a sharp rise in commodity prices, especially for oil and wheat. Prices for April deliveries of crude quickly topped $110 a barrel for the first time in more than a decade and shot up to $130 in off-hours trading before discussions began on releasing more oil into the global market to offset the U.S. ban on Russian oil and moves by European countries to reduce their imports. Wheat prices also shot up; both Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers to the world market, making around 28% of total output. There are growing fears that the war could worsen the already-dire picture for food inflation in vulnerable countries in Africa while wealthier Western nations are witnessing levels of inflation they haven’t seen in years.
Pipeline to nowhere?
Russia is hurting from the growing weight of Western sanctions. First the U.S. and its European partners limited Russia’s access to the global financial market. Then they began working to reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas—the economic lifeline that fuels the Russian state and its military.
The U.S. is also banning imports of Russian oil, the lifeblood of Moscow’s economy, as well as Russian natural gas and other energy sources. The EU plans to cut its imports of natural gas pumped from Russia by two-thirds by the end of this year, and the U.K. said it would phase out the Russian oil imports. Germany has halted the Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline.
Main natural-gas pipelines into Europe
Russian-owned or -associated pipelines
Russian-owned or -associated pipelines
Russian-owned or -associated pipelines
Russian-owned or -associated pipelines
Russian-owned or -associated pipelines
Instead of containing NATO, will Putin end up expanding it?
The Russian leader has talked repeatedly about pushing back the eastern expansion of the alliance to where it was before it began including former Soviet bloc countries. His heaviest red line was Ukraine, which at times has expressed its intention to join NATO. But rather than repelling NATO, Mr. Putin has instead prompted the alliance to reinforce its eastern front, putting an unprecedented number of personnel, planes and vehicles on alert as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine got under way.
Joined between 1949 and 1990
Membership under consideration
Joined between 1949 and 1990
Membership under consideration
Joined between 1949 and 1990
Membership under consideration
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